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3.3 million jobs at risk from Brexit, says Danny Alexander. But where’s the evidence?

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Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander claimed this week that 3.3 million jobs in the UK are connected to Britain’s continued membership of the EU. There was some briefing to the press that this assertion was based on a new Treasury analysis, though nothing has been published and so yet again we have a pro-EU argument knocking around with nothing of any substance to back it up.

The 3 million jobs claim is a familiar one, having been rolled out on many occasions by supporters of the EU. The Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg, used it in his recent television debates with Ukip leader Nigel Farage. But Alexander’s attempt to resurrect the figure seems like an effort to shore up the pro-EU case just as the Prime Minister, David Cameron, is emboldening eurosceptics (wittingly or not) in his increasingly ill-tempered battle with other EU heads to prevent Jean-Claude Juncker becoming president of the European Commission. It is looking increasingly likely that Juncker will be given the job anyway, rather proving that Britain’s influence in the EU isn’t as extensive as Cameron and Clegg would like to pretend. As Jonathan Lindsell wrote earlier this week, Cameron’s strategy risks backfiring, and could mean that Britain may be propelled towards leaving the EU on the grounds that Cameron is unable to negotiate properly.

What Alexander seems reluctant to acknowledge is that these 3.3 million jobs are simply linked to Britain’s trade with the EU but can’t be described as dependent on Britain’s membership of the EU. If Britain left the EU these jobs would not necessarily be at risk, especially since the UK is a vital trading partner for the EU. It is likely that a free trade agreement would be negotiated, so this vague, blanket statement doesn’t put the figures in any meaningful context.

Arguments to stay in the EU, especially economic ones, which usually allow politicians to bandy about hyperbolic figures with no real clarification, must be fully explained in order to present a fair case to the public. Many supporters of British membership of the EU often cite a disastrous conclusion if Britain were to leave the EU; Cathy Jamieson, Labour’s shadow Treasury minister claimed that “leaving the EU would be a disaster for jobs and businesses in Britain.” But recent Civitas studies by analyst Michael Burrage have demonstrated there has been no long-term boost to the UK’s economic activity from being a member of the EU (the latest of this studies is published today).

Yet Danny Alexander has been in the US this week trying to persuade American companies to come to Britain, guaranteeing lower corporation tax and access to EU markets, as well as promising that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (the free trade agreement between the EU and US) will have a “fantastic impact on your exports and our exports”. It is much too early to be making these sorts of promises with the future of Britain’s EU membership hanging uncertainly between a referendum in a few years’ time and Cameron’s impending defeat in a row with the man likely to soon take up the EU’s most powerful position.


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